Blogging for Max

We have been crunching a few numbers and trying to sort out some of this mess. Barring the possibility of a recount (which is likely) this is what we have:

The SoS site shows 94.84 percent of precincts reported. Of that, Max Burns has 66,186 votes (48.83 percent) and John Barrow has 69,360 votes (51.17 percent). There are 18 precincts that have still not reported. Nine of those precincts are the sealed ballot boxes in Effingham County and the other nine are: one in Bulloch, one in Emanuel, one in Jefferson, one in Johnson, one in Montgomery, one in Richmond, one in Toombs, one in Warren and one in Washington.

This gives Barrow a 3,174 vote lead with at least 7,000 votes unaccounted for. We are also hearing that there are somewhere in the neighborhood of 4,000 absentee ballots to be counted across the district, and those traditionally break Republican. So we’ll break this down further:

Effingham: Based on the 14 reported precincts from Effingham County, there are an average of 427 votes per precinct. From that we can estimate that there should be roughly 3,843 votes in the nine sealed ballot boxes. Max Burns won 74.57 percent of the total 14-precinct Effingham vote. Based on these numbers, Burns wins about 2,866 votes and Barrow nabs 977. If we add these numbers to the total, Burns is only down 1,285 votes.

The Other Nine: These are a little easier to call. Of the nine counties still unreported, Richmond and Jefferson were the only ones that showed Burns under 60 percent. We’ll use the SoS numbers to estimate the total number of votes in each precinct still withstanding.

Bulloch went 65.16 percent Burns. The lone holdout precinct should hold about 701 votes, based on the 17 reported Bulloch precincts. If 65 percent go to Burns, then he gets 457 votes and Barrow gets 244. Burns picks up 213 votes and trails by 1072 votes.

Emanuel went 63.17 percent Burns. Based on turnout from the 15 reported precincts, the one remaining precinct should have give-or-take 312 votes. That means 197 votes for Burns and 115 for Barrow. Burns picks up 82 votes and trails by 990 votes.

Jefferson went 53.66 percent Barrow. Using the nine reported precincts, the unreported precinct should contain roughly 499 votes. Burns should get 232 votes and Barrow 267 votes. Barrow picks up 35 votes and Burns then trails by 1,025 votes.

Johnson went 60.23 percent Burns. Based on the eight reported precincts, the calculations show about 252 votes in the holdout precinct. Burns wins 151 votes and Barrow 101. The net gain of 50 votes put Burns down 975 votes.

Montgomery went 60.75 percent Burns. From the eight reported precincts we can estimate that there should be roughly 237 votes outstanding. Of those, 143 go to Burns and 94 to Barrow. That puts Burns down 926 votes.

Richmond went 64.75 percent Barrow. Using the data from the 43 tallied precincts, the lone withstanding precinct should hold about 610 votes. Of those, 215 would be Burns’ and 395 would go to Barrow. Barrow nets 180 votes and Burns thus trails by 1,106 votes.

Toombs went 65.48 percent Burns. That leaves an estimated 355 votes in the unreported precinct. Burns would win 232 of those, Barrow 123. Burns then trails by 997 votes.

Warren went 52.42 percent Barrow. Using the data from the seven reported precincts, there are about 218 votes in the unaccounted-for precinct. Burns wins 104 votes, Barrow gets 114 votes. Burns then trails by 1,007 votes.

Washington went 52.85 percent Barrow. With nine of 10 precincts reported, the data suggests 533 votes in the remaining precinct. Burns gains 251 votes to Barrow’s 282. That means that after all 18 precincts are accounted for, based on all these numbers, Burns trails by 1,038 votes.

TOTAL: This total is EXTREMELY CLOSE and does not account for absentee ballots, which we have estimated at, give-or-take, 4,000. Burns would only need to win 2,519 of those 4,000 votes, or 63 percent, to force an ABSOLUTE tie. Absentee ballots traditionally favor Republicans, so if the above numbers hold up, it will come down to absentees.

Note: These numbers and estimates are all based on what has been reported thus far and are only averages based on said reported data. We have no idea which 18 precincts these are and how close to the averages they will go. The Richmond precinct could be in the southern part of the county which is more favorable to Burns. Or it could be in the inner-city which favor Barrow. Our numbers for the nine non-Effingham precincts should be pretty close to the eventual numbers, but again, it depends on which nine precincts we’re dealing with. A good showing for either side in Effingham would also swing it either way.

The bottom-line here is that this race is STILL a dead-heat. Either side can still win, and a recount is likely in the future. We will keep you updated when we hear anything more.