Blogging for Max

From the Campaign:

A poll released this week in Georgia’s new 12^th Congressional District shows Max Burns in a statistical dead heat with Athens Congressman John Barrow. The survey was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (POS) on July 9-11, 2006, among 400 likely voters in Georgia’s new 12^th District and had a margin of error of ±4.9 percent. Burns, a former Congressman and candidate for Georgia’s new 12^th District, trailed Barrow by just one point four months before Election Day.

“We are very encouraged by these poll results,” said Burns. “It just confirms what our grassroots campaign is telling us: the new 12 ^th District wants a Congressman with a positive, hopeful vision that will get this country back on track. Our campaign will continue to each out to each and every community in the district to earn their support.”

“Max Burns remains in a statistical dead heat with John Barrow, trailing by just one point,” said Glen Bolger, POS pollster. “Despite having the advantages of incumbency, Barrow has not been able to establish himself with voters in the district, as his re-elect and image have declined in the past few months. Voters are ready to bring Burns back to Congress.”

In a memorandum of key findings prepared for Burns, Bolger reports:

• Max Burns and John Barrow remain in a statistical dead-heat on the ballot test – 43% to 44%, with 15% undecided. Despite having all the advantages of incumbency, Barrow has made no gains in the past several months. Not only is Burns within the margin of error, but Barrow is under 50%, and undecideds typically break to the challenger.

• John Barrow’s re-elect has gone from bad to worse – 26% say they will re-elect Barrow while 43% want a new person, and 30% say it depends – a net 10 point drop from February’s poll.

• John Barrow’s image has worsened – Typically, incumbents see their positives go up at this time as a result of their franked mail and constituent service efforts, instead Barrow’s have worsened by a net nine points - Barrow has 67% name ID, with just 25% favorable - 18% unfavorable.

• Max Burns has a significantly better image - 87% name ID, with 47% favorable and 16% unfavorable.

• The new 12th Congressional District is much more favorable to Max Burns and Republicans - When running in the old 12th Congressional district two years ago, Burns lost just 48%-52%, while President Bush lost by eight points, 46%-54%. Under the new lines, this district swings nine points; Bush won by one point, 50% - 49%. This nine point shift in the Republicans’ favor will be a significant help to Burns this fall.